Marquan McCall and the UK defense better not sleep against Vanderbilt. (SEC Photo)
For those that have watched the Kentucky football program over any number of years they know not to take anything for granted. That’s why the game UK has against Vanderbilt this weekend — if it does get to be played — is very dangerous. The Sports Book handicappers in Las Vegas have the Wildcats as a 17-point favorite against Derek Mason’s winless Commodores.
The game will be played in Lexington. That is a plus but any Kentucky fan knows that when UK comes into a game as the favorite it is an immediate red flag. Just think about the 20-10 loss to Missouri earlier in the season.
And when Kentucky comes in as a favorite after a bye week, look out. Bye weeks have not always been kind to the Cats.
Historically over the last four years of the Mark Stoops era (we’ll call it the Eddie Gran period) UK is 3-2 after bye weeks. Not so bad you might say considering every game game was an SEC opponent. But who were those opponents? Glad you asked.
In 2016 Kentucky had beaten what turned out to be a 6-7 Vanderbilt team before the bye week and then won a game against Mississippi State at home on a last second field goal 40-38. That Mississippi State team finished the season 6-7. Kentucky finished the season 7-6 that year.
In 2017 UK beat what would be a 7-6 Missouri Tigers team 40-34 prior to the bye week only to lose to a 9-4 Mississippi State in a blowout in Starkville 45-7. UK finished 7-6 that season.
The 2018 season was more of the same. That Benny Snell-led Kentucky team accomplished more as a football team at UK than any team since 1977. They lost to an unranked Texas A&M squad (The Cats we’re ranked 13th at the time) on the road 20-14 before the bye week. After the bye week they played an average Vanderbilt team in Lexington and had to pull out a last second victory, 14-7, on an 80-yard touchdown drive late in the game. They were a prohibitive favorite going into that game as the 14th ranked team in the country.
Last season was no different. In 2019 for some reason the Wildcats were given two bye weeks on the schedule. In the first bye week Kentucky had lost to a less-than- mediocre 4-8 South Carolina team 24-7 on the road prior to the bye week and then barely beat what turned out to be a terrible 2-10 Arkansas team at home 24-20 after the bye.
The second bye week was more of the same. UK beat an average 6-6 Missouri team 29-7 the week before the bye only to some how lose to archival Tennessee in Lexington 17-13 in a game where the Cats played poorly and yet still had a chance to win the game with a 4th and 1 carry by Lynn Bowden that came up short at the goal line with less than a couple of minutes to go.
Kentucky held a 13-3 lead at halftime only to give up two touchdown passes in the third quarter to the backup quarterback and totally collapse in the second half to give the game to the Volunteers. That backup quarterback was the much maligned Jarrett Guarantano who played like a Heisman Trophy candidate that night.
So there you have it. The whole sordid history. Ranked UK teams barely pulling out a victory against bottom of the barrel SEC opponents, UK teams losing to other mediocre SEC teams for no explainable reason and victories that would have been losses except for last second heroics by running backs and kickers.
Not a pretty sight. As I said before, bye weeks have not been kind to the University of Kentucky football program.
This season isn’t shaping up any better. The Kentucky quarterback situation seems to be in disarray more than halfway through the season, several key offensive staff members are unavailable due to COVID-19 concerns and other health reasons and Kentucky comes into the game with one of the worst offenses in the SEC — 12th in points per game and 14th in yards gained per game.
So on Saturday at noon, when the ball has been kicked off and both teams are battling back and forth in a sloppy but tight game, don’t say I didn’t warn you to keep your rabbit’s foot in your pocket along with a handful of four-leaf clovers.
The Cats will need all the help they can get. Kentucky might be a 17-point favorite but I wouldn’t put any stock in it; not after watching so many UK bye weeks games come down to a last second touchdown drive, field goal attempt or failed goal line run to win the game.
— Keith Peel, Contributing Writer
