Analytics suggest Isaiah Jackson should be playing more for UK. (SEC Photo)
In the words of the great R&B and soul singer Marvin Gaye, “What’s going on?” How could Kentucky Basketball be this bad?
I was reading an article by Hoopsinsight.com (see the complete article here https://hoopsinsightuk.substack.com/p/kentucky-has-a-big-3but-they-might) about Kentucky’s current woes and as much as this may sound like a broken record some of the insights in that article seemed to be worth mentioning as this current season continues to grind toward an unmerciful end.
The article provided a lot of statistical analysis about different lineups that had performed well and poorly since the return of Keion Brooks to the UK lineup but a couple of key points were immediately evident.
One is that players named Sarr, Boston, and Askew were not mentioned in the key group of players that the Wildcats need on the floor at the end of games if they have any hope of winning more games down the final stretch of the SEC season. That means statistically (using the +- system) they don’t give UK the best chance to win when they are on the floor. They don’t seem to work well together as a group to win games.
The other interesting statistical fact is that players named Allen, Brooks, and Jackson did work well together (again using the +- rating system) to help UK win games. The article states that this group could carry the Wildcats the rest of the way if UK coach John Calipari would play them for more possessions each game. The writer states that these players have been the only reason Kentucky has played well in stretches the last six games (prior to the Missouri loss).
The article says, “Over the past six games, UK has a positive scoring margin in four games when they’ve played two or more of our Big 3 (Allen, Brooks, and Jackson); Alabama managed to outscore them by one point in each of the two matchups. On the flip side, when UK plays less than two of the winning trio they have been outscored in every game except Florida (+5).”
So statistically if the Kentucky coaches had consistently played this group of three players together they could be in a much better position with wins and losses and probably be in line for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Now I know a lot of you may be saying, “OK, we all know that from watching the games, now tell us something we don’t know.”
Well, here’s something you may not know or have thought about. The ramifications of this season will live on long after the basketballs have been put away and Kentucky records one of its worst seasons in the history of a program that has been the winningest in college basketball history.
Here’s what I mean. The pain created from this season will not only be felt during this pandemic altered year but in the seasons to come as long as John Calipari is the coach of this program. Does anyone really believe that players — both present and future — don’t see what’s going on here? Remember back to the Mississippi State game when Dontaie Allen came off the bench to scorch the Bulldogs for 23 points on 7-for-11 shooting behind the arc and lead the Cats to a rare victory.
Calipari said this about what Allen provides for this team. “When you do that, you kind of prove your point,” Calipari said after the (Mississippi State) win. “That’s what you’re supposed to do when you get a chance. I’m just so happy for him. … He changed us offensively because he spread the court. You’re playing behind some guys that you’re proving now, ‘They should be playing behind me.’ He changes our team.”
And yet based on the latest analytics from the Missouri loss had Calipari played the analytically best combination — Allen, Brooks, and Jackson — during the entire game, UK would have scored 109 points per 100 possessions while holding Missouri to 97 points for those same 100 possessions. That group had an effective field goal percentage of 67 percent and allowed an opponent’s field goal percentage of only 43 percent. Based on those projections UK would have beaten No. 18 Missouri.
But instead, Calipari chose not to play some of the players that have proven over and over again statistically to give the Wildcats the best chance to win. His reasoning goes like this, “We shot 60 percent (16 of 27) the second half and I just ran with guys who were playing well. Our biggest thing was getting stops and scoring. Next game he (Allen) may get 25-30 minutes. It was my choice. I rode with the team that was playing the hottest,” Calipari said.
And yet in the last four minutes of the game — crunch time per John Calipari — the team collapsed.
Remember those words from Calipari after the Mississippi State game. Words like, “He (Allen) changed us offensively because he spread the court. You’re playing behind some guys that you’re proving now, ‘They should be playing behind me.’ He (Allen) changes our team.”
Well, those were exactly that, just empty words. Players see that. They practice with the same players every day. They know who can carry the team and who doesn’t really perform well in the clutch, who is selfish with the ball, and which players can be counted on to help when the chips are down and have “earned” an opportunity to play.
As recruiting continues in the future — that means recruiting new high school players and also re-recruiting the players currently on the roster — players and parents of players will be taking a second look at the current state of UK’s basketball program and asking a very pertinent question. “Is that the best place for me or my son to go to further me or my son’s basketball career?”
When one considers that the program currently looks like a beat-up truck driving on four flat tires, thump-thump-thumping toward the end of the season, with a “can’t miss lottery pick” player that appears to have opted out without telling anyone, another “can’t miss lottery pick” player who has seen his draft stock in free fall since the beginning of the season while the rest of the players continue to give tremendous effort but scratch their heads and can’t seem to quite figure out what their coach is asking them to do.
One has to think that a reasonable person would avoid Kentucky’s program and find a home with a coaching staff that coaches less like “Jekyll and Hyde” and more like Denzel Washington in “Remember the Titans.”
But hey, I could be wrong about the impact this season will have on this current roster and future recruits, and Calipari may play 40 minutes of zone defense against Tennessee Saturday and an offense the whole game that gets open 3-point looks for Dontaie Allen and Davion Mintz using a five-out perimeter-based offense that allows open driving lanes to the basket for the other three players in the game. And we all know that is about as likely as a snowstorm in July.
— Keith Peel, Contributing Writer
