The impact of minus nine turnover imbalance on UK power ratings – Guest post by Richard Cheeks

Many publications provide fans and others with “Power Ratings” and recently one such power rating had Kentucky No. 8 in the SEC after the first four weeks of the season.  I do not know the formulation for this particular power rating, but I do believe it will have heavy offensive and defensive efficiency components.

Kentucky’s power rating is hurt significantly by the minus nine turnover imbalance.

An average turnover costs a team (or benefits the other team) by about 3 points and 30 yards of field position. I have compiled this average over many seasons. Of course, the cost of a particular turnover can vary widely around this average between 0 and 7 points, and between 0 and much higher potential field position losses than the average 30 yards, but these averages do occur over the course of many games and many turnovers.

(See graphic: http://bigbluefans4uk.com/UK_Football/2021_Season/2018_247_Predictions/UK-ANE_0_Turnover_Imbalance.png)

At minus nine, this average means the NET scoring balance of the combined four games has been impacted by about -27 points, and over those four games, UK has had a total of 44 1/2 possessions. That turnover deficit of 27 points in 44.5 possessions reduces UK’s Net efficiency by about 0.61 points per possession, which makes a huge difference in this type of ranking system.

That 0.61 points per possession change only adjusts the impact of turnovers to even. If this UK team had a positive turnover balance instead of its minus nine imbalance, the net impact on efficiency is even greater.  For example, rather than minus 2 1/4 turnovers per game, the actual number rose to +1 turnover per game (+4 on the season), the UK ANE would rise another 0.27 ppp.

The graph shows the current ANE values for UK each of the 12 UK opponents this season, and the 5 SEC teams not on this year’s schedule. Based on the actual ANE value, UK is the eighth or ninth strongest team. If the turnover balance was zero instead of minus nine, it would elevate UK to the fifth strongest team in the SEC, behind Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida. However, the gap between UK and Florida becomes very small, putting this game within a field goal at Kroger Field Saturday night.

Of course, this is a theoretical analysis, but it does allow us to discuss the impact of these turnovers within a substantive context.

One last point. UK does not simply have this minus nine turnover imbalance, it has also put the ball on the ground eight more times without losing possession. This analysis does not include the impact of these fumbles, but these fumbles, though not lost, often ended a possession that could have otherwise continued, and I have no idea what the average cost of a fumble, not lost, has on the fumbling team, but it is not a positive impact.

UK must reverse this turnover over margin over the next eight games if this team wants to achieve the lofty goals that it has for the 2021 season, and I believe it can. The question is whether this team will get that done!

No better time than to start with a positive turnover margin against the Gators!