When Florida and Kentucky meet it is Freaky Saturday and anything could happen

Will Levis could have a big game against a Florida defense that has been vulnerable to the pass. (Vicky Graff Photo)

When I was glancing over the offensive statistics for Kentucky and Florida this week one thing kept popping into my mind. All I could think about was “Freaky Friday.” If you were a kid, or you had kids, sometime between 2003 and 2021 your probably familiar with this movie. In 2003 Disney Productions put out a remake movie titled “Freaky Friday” that starred among others, Lindsay Lohan and Jamie Lee Curtis. The premise of the movie was that a mother, Jamie Lee Curtis, a very straight-laced, buttoned-down widowed therapist was getting remarried and her flighty, teenage rock and roll musician daughter (played by Lindsay Lohan) disagreed with everything her mother did and said, including her new step-dad.

The same thing was true of the mother concerning her daughter, including her choice in music. They were total opposites. The gist of the movie was that mother and daughter switch bodies due to some spell cast by a fortune cookie on Thursday night at a Chinese restaurant.

On Freaky Friday the mother begins acting like the daughter and the daughter begins acting like the mother. After that, all chaos breaks loose as they each do the opposite of what they would normally do. Hence the title “Freaky Friday”.

Well, maybe this Saturday the UK-Florida football game should be dubbed “Freaky Saturday” because if one were to look at the offenses of both Florida and Kentucky one would think that Mark Stoop’s Kentucky “run it down their throats” personality had inhabited the Florida offense and Dan Mullen’s “throw the intermediate and deep ball, then mix in some run game to make it work” had taken over the Kentucky offense.

Here’s what I mean.

Kentucky’s play-action offense is seventh in the SEC in total passing yards with 954 and sixth in rushing yards with 809. Florida has 1,291 total rushing yards which is first in the SEC by a wide margin but its total passing yards of 873 is 11th in the SEC and only one yard greater than 12th place Tennessee.

It appears that Florida has taken on the persona of the 2019 Wildcats who had a tremendous running quarterback in Lynn Bowden that year along with running backs Chris Rodriguez, AJ Rose and Kavosiey Smoke. Bowden led the SEC in rushing as a running quarterback and the Kentucky offense led the SEC in rushing while Florida was 13th. That same year the Florida Gators were third in passing yards while Kentucky was dead last in 14th position.

Now fast forward two years to this coming Saturday and we have, as I said before, Freaky Saturday. Two offenses going in different directions.

Florida depends on the legs of Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, both playing the quarterback position, to create rushing yards. They have combined for 650 yards rushing in four games. That’s over 160 yards rushing per game from the quarterback position. That would be almost 2,000 rushing yards from that position over a 12 game season. That’s what Bowden would have done over a 12 game schedule if he had played quarterback the entire season.

Contrast that with the UK offense this season that has quarterback Will Levis passing for 902 yards and rushing for 67 yards. It would be disingenuous if I failed to mention that Chris Rodriguez is the leading rusher in total yards in the SEC at 521. So Kentucky hasn’t completely sold out to the passing game like Florida did in 2019 but they sure aren’t the run-first Cats of 2018 and 2019.

So what does all this mean when the two teams meet on “Freaky Saturday?” I’m not really sure. Kentucky is third in the SEC in defense against the run and Florida is fitth. Both teams want to run, Florida with their quarterbacks and Kentucky with their running backs, so it would appear that whichever team can blend in an efficient passing game to go with the run should have a leg up. By the way the Wildcats are sixth in the SEC in passing efficiency defense while the Gators rank 11th in that same category.

That tells me that if Kentucky can hold out the pass rush long enough for Levis to hit some intermediate routes against the Gators that could help the Cats boost their rushing numbers some against a pretty good Florida defense.

It also tells me that if the UK pass rush can’t keep Emory Jones and/or Anthony Richardson bottled up in the pocket, forcing them to throw the ball, it could be a long night for the Wildcats.  They both seem to be much less effective if they have to throw from the pocket. If they roll out it appears they have a much better release that is very accurate in the short passing game.

That could put a lot of pressure on UK’s edge defenders, linebackers, and cornerbacks. Throw in a little quarterback run game along with some true running plays with small, speedy backs and it could spell trouble for the Cats.

On the flip side, if the Kentucky offensive line can give Levis time to throw the ball (that’s a big if because Florida is tied for fourth in sacks in the SEC) he should be able to connect with Wan’Dale Robinson, Josh Ali or one of the tight ends. Florida’s defense is 89th out of 132 schools in the nation in passing yards given up per game, so the opportunities should be there.

Overall it looks to me like Freaky Saturday will be Kentucky trying to set up the pass with the run and Florida relying heavily on the legs of their two quarterbacks to move the ball on offense. My guess is that when two teams that like to turn the ball over like Florida and Kentucky get together it could be anybody’s ball game.

My overall prediction would be that Florida will do just enough with the likely three Kentucky turnovers they get to win by a field goal.

But who knows, since it’s Freaky Saturday anything could happen.